Product
Forecast
How much of each product will sell in the coming weeks, with a likely range and accuracy measured against past data.
Go to WorkspaceWhat you can do
| View | What it's for |
|---|---|
| Summary | Expected demand for each product and in total. |
| Forecast | The line ahead with its likely range. |
| Accuracy | How far off the model is (WAPE and bias). |
| Backtest | A period already lived is forecast and compared with what actually happened. |
| Manual adjustment | Correct a week when something is known that the data doesn't show. |
| New products | Estimate a product with no history from a similar one. |
Products that sell now and then
Some products go weeks without selling and then suddenly sell. An average spreads that sale across every week and is almost never right.
For them, dedicated methods such as Croston or TSB look separately at how often a sale happens and how big it is. Varsel adds them automatically when a product has zero sales in at least 30% of periods, and keeps the one with the lowest error.
| Demand type | How often it sells | How much the quantity varies |
|---|---|---|
| Smooth | Almost always | Little |
| Erratic | Almost always | A lot |
| Intermittent | Now and then | Little |
| Lumpy | Now and then | A lot |